It is my honour and privilege to address the Press on the release of the First Quarter, 2022 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimates. GDP measures the performance of economic activities within a country and is a core macroeconomic indicator for policy planning and monitoring. It is the requirement of the statistics Code of Practice that the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) releases to the general public, statistical information in a timely manner, in line with our Data Release Calendar as practiced by National Statistical Offices globally. For the GDP, a minimum of 45 days after the reference period is recommended. Thus, as the National Statistics Office of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, I wish to reiterate here, the determination of the Bureau to ensure timeliness in the release of all relevant statistical information. This Q1 2022 GDP press release is in line with our continuous determination to ensure the availability of reliable and timely statistics which are necessary for policymaking and business decisions. It is also part of our efforts to ensure that data and the data production processes are properly understood, and the results accurately reported and disseminated to the public. 

2. The GDP estimates provide a picture of the structure and dynamics of an economy, providing an indication of the performance of various economic activities within a given period. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has been conducting Establishment Surveys to provide data for the estimation of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the country. In 2008, NBS started to improve the GDP series by conducting Quarterly Establishment Surveys (QES) for the four quarters of each year to provide timely estimates for decision and policymaking.

3. Distinguished ladies and gentlemen, on behalf of the management and staff of the National Bureau of Statistics, it is important to note that after the recession experienced by the country in 2020 occasioned by the Covid-19 pandemic, the economy has been on the path of growth for five quarters, signifying an exit from the recession. As a way of highlighting the recent performance of the economy over the last five quarters, the growth recorded was: 0.11% (Q4 2020), 0.51% (Q1 2021), 5.01% (Q2 2021), 4.03% (Q3 2021), and 3.98% (Q4 2021).     

4. I am pleased to announce to you that the economy maintained this positive trend for the sixth consecutive quarter, recording an output growth of 3.11% in the first quarter of 2022 on a year-on-year basis. It is important to state that the improvement seen in the output growth over time depicts steady progress made by the nation in restoring economic stability disrupted by the Covid-19 pandemic. Thus, we are gradually tending towards economic stability. 

Summary of First Quarter 2022 Gross Domestic Product Estimates

5. In nominal terms, aggregate GDP stood at N45.32 trillion in the first quarter of 2022. This performance is higher when compared to the first quarter of 2021 which recorded N40.01 trillion, indicating a year-on-year nominal growth rate of 13.25%.  Nominal Gross Domestic Product in the preceding quarter of Q4 2021 stood at N49.28 trillion.

In terms of real GDP, the first quarter of 2022 was recorded at N17.35 trillion, higher by N522.49 billion than the N16.83 trillion recorded in the first quarter of 2021. This shows output growth of 3.11% in the first quarter of 2022. Output in the first quarter of 2022 was, however, lower by N2.98 trillion when compared to the fourth quarter of 2021 when the aggregate real GDP was N20.33 trillion

 Oil Sector

6. The Crude oil production in the first quarter of 2022 recorded an average daily oil production of 1.49 million barrels per day (mbpd), lower than the daily average production of 1.72mbpd recorded in the same quarter of 2021 by 0.23mbpd, and lower than the fourth quarter of 2021 production volume of 1.50mbpd by 0.01mbpd. Resultantly, the Oil GDP grew by -26.04% in Q1 2022 and accounted for 6.63% of total output during the reference quarter.

Non-oil Sector

7. The non-oil sector grew by 6.08% in real terms during the reference quarter (Q1 2022). This rate was higher by 5.28% points compared to the rate recorded same quarter of 2021 and 1.34% points higher than the fourth quarter of 2021. This sector in the first quarter of 2022 was mainly driven by activities in the Information and Communication (Telecommunication); Trade; Financial and Insurance (Financial Institutions); Agriculture (Crop Production); and Manufacturing (Food, Beverage & Tobacco), all accounting for positive GDP growth. In real terms, the non-Oil sector contributed 93.37% to the nation’s GDP in the first quarter of 2022, higher than the share recorded in the first quarter of 2021 which was 90.75%, and lower than the fourth quarter of 2021 record at 94.81%.

Fastest growing activities in the first quarter of 2022

8. Financial and Insurance sector, Water Supply, Sewerage, Waste Management & Remediation sector, Information and Communication sector, Trade sector, and Human Health & Social Services sector showed strong growth figures during the first quarter of 2022. Thus, the fastest-growing activities in real terms during the first quarter of 2022 were Rail Transport & Pipelines (124.54%); Air Transport (50.68%); Metal Ores (30.76%); Financial Institutions (25.43%); Telecommunications & Information Services (14.50%); Chemical and Pharmaceutical Products (10.33%); Food, Beverages, and Tobacco (9.81%); and Cement (9.57%). However, some of the slowest growing activities include Oil Refining (-44.26%); Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas (-26.04%); Road Transport (-24.63%); Quarrying and Other Minerals (-13.72%); Coal Mining (-12.97%); Electrical and Electronics (-4.87%), etc.

9. Rail and Air transport activities witnessed high demand in the first quarter of 2022 compared to the corresponding quarter of 2021, as they are known to provide alternative modes of transportation considered to be safer, in addition to the easing travel restrictions. The growth recorded in Metal Ores was driven principally by the increase in the volume of production during the quarter. Again, there was an improvement in the performance of Water Supply, Sewerage, Waste Management, and Remediation activities during the quarter as a result of an increased volume of water processing and waste collection. On the other hand, the poor performance of oil was occasioned by operational challenges such as vandalism of pipelines and oil theft. 

10. On the broad sectoral performance, Agriculture grew by 3.16% during the first quarter of 2022 in real terms, higher than the first quarter of 2021 which recorded 2.28%. The industry, grew by -6.81%, which is a decline over the figure recorded in the first quarter of 2021 when it recorded a growth of 0.94%. The Services sector grew by 7.45%, an improvement from -0.39% reported in the first quarter of 2021.  

Agriculture, Industry, and Services contributed 22.36%, 21.47%, and 56.17% respectively to GDP in the reference period. This shows higher contributions of Agriculture and Services in the first quarter of 2022 compared to the first quarter of 2021, when it recorded 22.35% and 53.90% respectively. 

11. In conclusion, I must not forget to say a word of appreciation to our partners in the statistical system for their consistent and unwavering support.  In particular, I wish to thank the media for the important role it continues to play in informing the general public, as well as its continued support for NBS’s data dissemination policy. There is no doubt that the support provided has helped tremendously to improve statistical delivery and usage in Nigeria. In the same vein, I look forward to a credible reporting on the Q1 GDP, 2022 in both electronic and Print Media, as well as all social Media Platforms. As usual, NBS remains open to providing further information and clarifications on this important statistical product. 

Thank you for your attention!

Statistician-General, 

National Bureau of Statistics,  

23rd May, 2022