Zimbabwe gold exports by value decreased by 45.7% in January 2021 from the same period last year according to the latest figures released by Fidelity Printers and Refiners (FPR), the sole gold buyer and exporter.

In January gold exports were valued at US$53.2 million which was US$44.8 million lower than the US$98 million gold exported in the same month last year. A number of factors have been pointed, including incessant rains that have rocked the country this rainy season.

Rains have affected deliveries to FPR, especially for the small scale miners who have seen their mines being water logged and others being trapped underground due to loose grounds.

Smuggling has also risen in the past few months as miners complained of late payments of at least a week, but FPR said the miners are now being paid on the spot at all their agencies around the country.

Gold started the new year on a sour note, with prices settling lower for the first month of 2021, but many analysts are confident that the longer-term outlook remains promising for the precious metal.

Gold futures settled at US$1,850.30 an ounce on Jan. 29 to lose about 2.4% in January. That followed a roughly 24% gain in 2020.

However, gold prices are likely to remain fairly high throughout the first half of 2021, around US$1,860, as “reality sets in” that it will take at least six months for vaccination rates to reach a level that will speed up the U.S. economic recovery, she says.

Prices for the metal may drop noticeably in the third quarter to an average US$1,775 as GDP growth accelerates, then to around US$1,750 in the fourth quarter. The world economic recovery will be gradual in 2022 to 2023, preventing a sharper drop in gold prices.

Our resident economist, Tinevimbo Shava said he sees gold prices this year rallying to more than US$2,000, with a rise to fresh record highs by midyear, due to the US US$1.9 Trillion stimulus package.