SA producer inflation surprises as rate drops below 9%




© FAR

South Africa’s producer inflation, an early indicator of consumer price growth, slowed to single digits for the first time in 17 months in April.

The annual rate fell to 8.6% from 10.6% in March, the biggest decline in three years, according to data published Thursday by Pretoria-based Statistics South Africa. None of the nine economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected a reading that low, with the median estimate at 9%.

The data adds to better-than-expected consumer inflation data on Wednesday that showed price-growth eased to a 11-month low of 6.8%. That’s still above the 4.5% midpoint of the central bank’s target range at which it prefers to anchor price-growth expectations since April 2021.

The data are unlikely to deter the central bank from raising interest rates at 3 p.m on Thursday.

All 25 economists surveyed by Bloomberg predicted the bank will extend its longest phase of monetary tightening since 2006. Twenty economists forecast it will increase rates by 50 basis points to 8.25%, one by three-quarters of a percentage point and three by 25 basis points.